June 17, 2025
Are Prize Bonds Worth It? We Ran 10,000 Simulations to Find Out
Beyond the anecdotes of big wins and bad luck, here’s what the data says about your real chances of winning.
Beyond the anecdotes of big wins and bad luck, here’s what the data says about your real chances of winning.
Prize Bonds are a cornerstone of Irish saving, but the debate always rages: are you better off with the thrill of the draw or the guaranteed return of a savings account? Relying on anecdotes from lucky winners or unlucky souls doesn't tell the whole story.
We used a simulator, running thousands of trials based on the official odds, to see what patterns emerge for different types of savers. The results are surprising.
If you have a small amount to put away for the very long term, time can work in your favour.
Our simulation of a €100 holding over 40 years found that you have a one-in-three chance of earning more than you would in a standard 2% savings account. However, patience is key, as the most typical (median) outcome, even after four decades, is to win €0.
The takeaway: For a "set it and forget it" gift, Prize Bonds offer a slim but real chance of outperforming a savings account over a lifetime, but you must be prepared to win nothing at all.
With a more substantial holding, the picture changes. After 10 years with €1,000 saved, the simulation shows you still have about a one-in-three chance of beating the savings account.
Crucially, however, the median outcome shifts. The most typical result is no longer zero; it's a total win of €75. This shows that with a decent holding, you can start to expect some return, even if it's small.
This is where it gets interesting. With a €5,000 holding, your best chance of beating a savings account is actually in the first year.
Why? Because the guaranteed, compounding interest from a savings account is a powerful force. In year one, the interest earned is small, and a single €75 prize from the bonds is enough to beat it.
But as the years go by, the guaranteed interest from the savings account grows exponentially, creating a much higher bar for the random luck of Prize Bonds to beat.
While your median winnings from Prize Bonds will increase over time (from €0 in year one to €225 after five years), the mountain you have to climb to beat the compounding interest of a savings account gets steeper.
We've all seen the forum threads where someone reports consistent winnings. A famous example on Boards.ie details a user who turned €25,000 into €3,375 in winnings over 13 years.
Our simulation shows this isn't just a wild outlier. That result is a lucky but perfectly plausible outcome. The median return for that scenario is lower, but winning a few mid-tier prizes over a decade can easily lead to that kind of return. It confirms that while you shouldn't expect these results, they are a real possibility and part of the reason Prize Bonds remain so popular.
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